Dynamic mapping of dengue basic reproduction number

We developed a method to produce time-varying maps for dengue transmission risk, using the Ross-Macdonald framework and differential equations estimate spatially basic reproduction number (R0) of vector-borne disease. The components R0 formula were derived partly from mosquito population dynamics model integrating meteorological environmental variables, temperature-dependent functions vector competence extrinsic incubation period. was applied on Reunion Island, tropical island located in Indian Ocean, where Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus has been responsible large numerous outbreaks dengue. As validation, predicted dynamic outputs compared with distribution confirmed cases registered during year 2018 Island. results highlight strong agreements between observed epidemiological patterns temporal dynamics. This finding demonstrates relevance efficiency spatialised develop an operational mapping tool surveillance control. resulting could be great use health policy-making context, providing time space awareness risk perception.